← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.22 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 23% | 30% | 4.17 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 77' | 🟨 | Otavio · Bordeaux |
| 79' | 🟨 | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days |
| 357.00 |
| 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1442.23 | 1541.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.21 | -44.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| league points | 33.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |