← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens win | 62% | 67% | 1.57 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.14 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 15% | 12% | 6.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Serhou Guirassy · Amiens |
| 47' | ⚽ | Saman Ghoddos · Amiens |
| 66' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| coach days |
| 1635.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1498.25 | 1452.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.85 | -13.42 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |