← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 42% | 47% | 2.34 | value: +9% |
| Toulouse FC win | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 4 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 321.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1492.17 | 1602.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.45 | -10.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| league points | 38.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |