← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.15 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 18% | 14% | 5.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 62' | 🟨 | Racine Coly · OGC Nice |
| 65' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 81' | ⚽ | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mickaël Le Bihan · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 533.00 | 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1730.92 | 1668.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.71 | 0.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.86 |
| league points | 62.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 25.11 |
| state index | 1.13 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |