← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 51% | 54% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.67 | fair |
| Nantes win | 22% | 22% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 29' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
| 76' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days |
| 747.00 |
| 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1639.94 | 1574.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.62 | 51.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 73.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| league points | 58.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | 1.01 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.47 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |