← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 77% | 84% | 1.25 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.60 | fair |
| Caen win | 8% | 4% | 12.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 49' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 54' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 64' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 74' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 84' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| coach days | 17.00 | 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1728.92 | 1446.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.71 | 32.99 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 66.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.73 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.46 | — |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |