← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 59% | 67% | 1.64 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.12 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 17% | 13% | 5.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Jonathan Ikoné · Lille OSC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 39' | 🟨 | Vincent Pajot · Angers SCO |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Angers SCO |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Luiz Araújo · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luiz Araújo · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 533.00 | 2878.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1756.76 | 1635.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.10 | 10.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 72.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.90 | 27.53 |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |