← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 42% | 37% | 2.33 | fair |
| Nimes win | 31% | 36% | 3.16 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marcus Thuram · Guingamp |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jordan Ikoko · Guingamp |
| 35' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Guingamp |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marcus Thuram · Guingamp |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sofiane Alakouch · Nimes |
| 53' | ⚽ | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
| 56' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · Nimes |
| 66' | 🟨 | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 21 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days |
| 198.00 |
| 1294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1449.44 | 1618.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.36 | 16.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| league points | 26.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |