← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 44% | 42% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
| Reims win | 27% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Hyun-Jun Suk · Reims |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Foket · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 255.00 | 747.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.60 |
| -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1618.58 | 1642.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.15 | -49.71 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| league points | 38.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 26.86 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |