← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 62% | 73% | 1.56 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.05 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 14% | 10% | 6.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Loïc Rémy · Lille OSC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jaroslav Plašil · Bordeaux |
| 32' | 🟨 | Yacine Adli · Bordeaux |
| 47' | 🟨 | Loïc Rémy · Lille OSC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Lille OSC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Toma Bašić · Bordeaux |
| 77' | 🟨 | Otavio · Bordeaux |
| 88' | 🟥 | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 527.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1751.70 | 1623.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.34 | -26.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 69.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.32 | 26.42 |
| state index | 1.29 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |