← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 37% | 46% | 2.67 | value: +23% |
| Nantes win | 33% | 26% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Samuel Moutoussamy · Nantes |
| 49' | 🟨 | Fábio · Nantes |
| 55' | ⚽ | Malang Sarr · OGC Nice |
| 62' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 78' | 🟨 | Charles Traoré · Nantes |
| 81' | 🟨 | Youcef Atal · OGC Nice |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bassem Srarfi · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days |
| 344.00 |
| 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1600.14 | 1571.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.08 | 62.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 71.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.50 |
| league points | 52.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.52 | — |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |