← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 1044.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1448.78 | 1573.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.13 | -14.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| league points | 28.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.62 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |