← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 34% | 28% | 2.86 | fair |
| Caen win | 33% | 41% | 2.95 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Pablo Chavarria · Reims |
| 14' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 37' | ⚽ | Moussa Doumbia · Reims |
| 40' | ⚽ | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Younn Zahary · Caen |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Arbër Zeneli · Reims |
| 89' | 🟨 | Thomas Foket · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 344.00 | 740.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1433.95 | 1596.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.54 | -40.34 |
| eye test v1 | -1.65 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.54 |
| league points | 30.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |