← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens win | 44% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.21 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 26% | 27% | 3.81 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Toulouse FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Saman Ghoddos · Amiens |
| 82' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1622.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1509.78 | 1489.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.64 | 1.42 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| league points | 34.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |