← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 54% | 46% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 38% | 3.79 | value: +46% |
| Montpellier win | 20% | 16% | 4.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mathías Suárez · Montpellier |
| 51' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 53' | 🟥 | Daniel Congré · Montpellier |
| 55' | 🟨 | Benjamin Lecomte · Montpellier |
| 56' | 🟨 | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 62' | 🟥 | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 64' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 525.00 | 739.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1671.61 | 1627.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.95 | 25.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| league points | 62.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | 1.13 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |