← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Willy Delajod, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 43% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Toulouse FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Clément Grenier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 35' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Matthieu Dossevi · Toulouse FC |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Ismaïla Sarr · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Léa Siliki · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days |
| 308.00 |
| 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1488.45 | 1599.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.89 | -31.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 36.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |