← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
| Dijon win | 24% | 24% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nayef Aguerd · Dijon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Romain Amalfitano · Dijon |
| 73' | 🟥 | Nayef Aguerd · Dijon |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 80' | ⚽ | Valentin Rongier · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| 216.00 |
| 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1562.09 | 1458.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.64 | 22.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.85 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.60 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| league points | 43.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.62 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |