← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 54% | 60% | 1.79 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 19% | 3.50 | fair |
| Amiens win | 18% | 21% | 5.38 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 66' | ⚽ | Steven Mendoza · Amiens |
| 81' | 🟨 | Regis Gurtner · Amiens |
| 81' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Congré · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 734.00 | 1616.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1704.40 | 1565.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.40 | -3.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 54.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 26.92 |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |