← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 49% | 42% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.43 | fair |
| Nimes win | 23% | 29% | 4.24 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Tristan Dingome · Reims |
| 26' | ⚽ | Jordan Ferri · Nimes |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sofiane Alakouch · Nimes |
| 43' | ⚽ | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Björn Engels · Reims |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rémi Oudin · Reims |
| 46' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · Nimes |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sada Thioub · Nimes |
| 78' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| 733.00 |
| 1280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1618.44 | 1588.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.76 | 7.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| league points | 49.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |