← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 82% | 75% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 16% | 9.03 | value: +40% |
| OGC Nice win | 7% | 10% | 14.05 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | ⚽ | Ignatius Ganago · OGC Nice |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Youcef Atal · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| coach days |
| 307.00 |
| 337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1880.24 | 1592.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -67.70 | 11.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| league points | 84.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.47 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.45 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.59 | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.05 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |