← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 51% | 53% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.34 | fair |
| Caen win | 20% | 22% | 4.92 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Malik Tchokounte · Caen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Herman Moussaki · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Gradit · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 1 |
| 1 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 24 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 184.00 | 337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1519.99 | 1505.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.24 | 27.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 25.04 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |