← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 38% | 40% | 2.57 | value: +3% |
| Angers SCO win | 32% | 30% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Alexandre Lauray · Bordeaux |
| 40' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 83' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| coach days |
| 241.00 |
| 2864.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1569.95 | 1554.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.64 | 7.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 38.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |