← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 65% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.37 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 13% | 17% | 7.39 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 10' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 83' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 513.00 | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1654.91 | 1495.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.63 | 9.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 56.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 1.34 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |