← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 42% | 46% | 2.30 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.07 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 26% | 24% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Youcef Atal · OGC Nice |
| 16' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 19' | 🟨 | Mehdi Merghem · Guingamp |
| 36' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adrien Tameze · OGC Nice |
| 68' | ⚽ | Youcef Atal · OGC Nice |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alexandre Mendy · Guingamp |
| 72' | 🟨 | Patrick Burner · OGC Nice |
| 73' | ⚽ | Youcef Atal · OGC Nice |
| 78' | 🟨 | Étienne Didot · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 331.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1654.45 | 1528.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.71 | -3.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| league points | 48.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.74 | 26.58 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |