← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 64% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.53 | value: +6% |
| Nantes win | 14% | 14% | 6.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 939.00 | 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1631.58 | 1548.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.34 | 20.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| league points | 54.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.06 | — |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |