← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 68% | 66% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.53 | fair |
| Nimes win | 11% | 14% | 8.99 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Loïc Rémy · Lille OSC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Florian Miguel · Nimes |
| 49' | 🟨 | Antonin Bobichon · Nimes |
| 51' | ⚽ | Loïc Rémy · Lille OSC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Zeki Çelik · Lille OSC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rui Fonte · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 513.00 | 1274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1736.59 | 1654.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.80 | 16.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| league points | 65.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.92 | 25.26 |
| state index | 0.94 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |