← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 38% | 53% | 2.55 | value: +35% |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.12 | fair |
| Caen win | 30% | 23% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Malik Tchokounte · Caen |
| 40' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
| 44' | 🟨 | Frédéric Sammaritano · Dijon |
| 50' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 67' | ⚽ | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Naïm Sliti · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 331.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1422.25 | 1468.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.65 | 24.05 |
| eye test v1 | -1.60 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 1.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |