← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 41% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
| Reims win | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Reims |
| 56' | 🟨 | Thomas Foket · Reims |
| 63' | ⚽ | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
| 71' | ⚽ | Vincent Manceau · Angers SCO |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rahman Baba · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2858.00 | 727.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1554.00 | 1618.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.77 | -33.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| league points | 41.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |