← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens win | 39% | 53% | 2.49 | value: +33% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.12 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 30% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Cheick Timite · Amiens |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jonas Martin · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1609.00 | 1031.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1504.60 | 1573.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.52 | 8.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.62 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |