← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 58% | 62% | 1.67 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.19 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 18% | 16% | 5.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Bordeaux |
| 38' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 61' | 🟨 | Otavio · Bordeaux |
| 67' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 73' | 🟥 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
| 78' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 85' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergi Palencia · Bordeaux |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 233.00 | 1242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1643.35 | 1782.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.55 | -22.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 38.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 20.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 1.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 8.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 24.53 | 23.61 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |