← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 43% | 42% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 28% | 29% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Zeki Çelik · Lille OSC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Toulouse FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Lille OSC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days |
| 294.00 |
| 506.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1491.82 | 1668.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.73 | 39.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.32 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 35.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.66 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |