← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 35% | 37% | 2.76 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 35% | 29% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.26 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Björn Engels · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 61' | 🟨 | Thomas Foket · Reims |
| 79' | 🟨 | Xavier Chavalerin · Reims |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| coach days | 720.00 | 506.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1636.09 | 1637.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.02 | 20.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 48.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |