← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +6% |
| Amiens win | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · Amiens |
| 25' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 55' | ⚽ | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 59' | ⚽ | Valentin Rongier · Nantes |
| 62' | ⚽ | Juan Otero · Amiens |
| 69' | 🟨 | Steven Mendoza · Amiens |
| 69' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Amiens |
| 77' | ⚽ | Cheick Timite · Amiens |
| 87' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 202.00 | 1602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1540.67 | 1512.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.13 | 16.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.42 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |