← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 36% | 31% | 2.68 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 33% | 38% | 2.98 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 28' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 30' | 🟨 | Anthony Gonçalves · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 34' | ⚽ | Pablo Martínez · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 46' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ambroise Oyongo · Montpellier |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jonas Martin · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 86' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.60 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1023.00 | 719.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1591.17 | 1599.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.12 | -3.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 44.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.62 | — |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |