← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 59% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.55 | fair |
| Caen win | 14% | 23% | 7.11 | value: +63% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Yoël Armougom · Caen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 323.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| elo | 1670.62 | 1480.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.06 | -16.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 48.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| squad age | 24.50 | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |