← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 49% | 54% | 1.98 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.49 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 23% | 25% | 4.26 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days |
| 170.00 |
| 931.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1465.91 | 1620.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.09 | -5.98 |
| eye test v1 | -1.23 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 24.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.68 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |