← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 37% | 31% | 2.61 | fair |
| Dijon win | 34% | 38% | 2.88 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Nayef Aguerd · Dijon |
| 37' | 🟨 | Clément Grenier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 52' | ⚽ | Adrien Hunou · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Benjamin Jeannot · Dijon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ismaïla Sarr · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 61' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Benjamin Jeannot · Dijon |
| 77' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nayef Aguerd · Dijon |
| 83' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 108.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1529.74 | 1685.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.87 | -26.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.27 | 26.75 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |