← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 48% | 59% | 2.04 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
| Nantes win | 25% | 19% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Dani Alves · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 44' | ⚽ | Majeed Waris · Nantes |
| 52' | ⚽ | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 55' | 🟨 | Presnel Kimpembe · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Julian Draxler · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Colin Dagba · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Metehan Güçlü · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maxime Dupé · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 198.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1596.78 | 1983.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.82 | -30.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 34.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 2.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 25.05 |
| state index | 0.08 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |