← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 62% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.15 | value: +3% |
| Bordeaux win | 14% | 17% | 6.73 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 46' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 74' | ⚽ | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days |
| 499.00 |
| 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1624.08 | 1599.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.69 | 4.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.83 |
| league points | 50.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |