← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +4% |
| Toulouse FC win | 21% | 24% | 4.55 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 63' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kalidou Sidibe · Toulouse FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Souleymane Camara · Montpellier |
| 86' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 713.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1665.92 | 1571.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.37 | 13.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 45.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.15 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |