← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 57% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.91 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 19% | 21% | 5.22 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (og) | Thomas Meunier · Lille OSC |
| 11' | ⚽ | Juan Bernat · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 36' | 🟥 | Juan Bernat · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Gabriel Magalhães · Lille OSC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Julian Draxler · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Marco Verratti · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | José Fonte · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 499.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1638.22 | 1939.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.59 | 0.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| league points | 61.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 67.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 2.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 2.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 24.66 |
| state index | 0.67 | 1.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |