← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 22% | 24% | 4.41 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Marcus Thuram · Guingamp |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 45' | 🟨 | Anthony Gonçalves · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 63' | ⚽ | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sanjin Prcić · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 81' | 🟨 | Didier N'Dong · Guingamp |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jérémy Sorbon · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days |
| 1016.00 |
| 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1596.27 | 1460.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.36 | -4.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 43.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.62 | — |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |