← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 69% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.88 | fair |
| Nimes win | 11% | 16% | 8.73 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Nimes |
| 24' | 🟨 | Duje Ćaleta-Car · Olympique de Marseille |
| 70' | 🟨 | Faitout Maouassa · Nimes |
| 72' | ⚽ | Valère Germain · Olympique de Marseille |
| 73' | ⚽ | Luiz Gustavo · Olympique de Marseille |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 924.00 | 1259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1612.58 | 1601.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.84 | -0.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 48.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.98 | — |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |