← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 41% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.11 | fair |
| Caen win | 28% | 30% | 3.52 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Prince Oniangué · Caen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Caen |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jeff Reine-Adélaïde · Angers SCO |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jessy Deminguet · Caen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 316.00 | 2843.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1413.83 | 1550.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.04 | 5.25 |
| eye test v1 | -1.49 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 23.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |