← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
| Amiens win | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
| 27' | 🟨 | Romain Amalfitano · Dijon |
| 31' | 🟨 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 52' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 54' | 🟨 | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟥 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 101.00 | 1593.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1455.55 | 1512.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.68 | 22.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.77 |
| league points | 24.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |