← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 36% | 39% | 2.74 | value: +6% |
| Nimes win | 35% | 32% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 24' | ⚽ | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
| 31' | 🟨 | Herve Lybohy · Nimes |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Nimes |
| 40' | ⚽ | Adrien Hunou · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | 🟥 | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | 🟥 | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · Nimes |
| 72' | ⚽ | Antonin Bobichon · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1255.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1638.87 | 1702.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.35 | -10.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 40.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 25.58 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |