← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 36% | 33% | 2.73 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 33% | 40% | 2.98 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Lille OSC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Thiago Maia · Lille OSC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jacques-Alaixys Romao · Reims |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rahman Baba · Reims |
| 55' | ⚽ | José Fonte · Lille OSC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Rémi Oudin · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| coach days | 706.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1636.86 | 1636.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.18 | 12.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 46.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.82 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |