← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 37% | 39% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.05 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 31% | 29% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 34' | 🟨 | Vitorino Hilton · Montpellier |
| 83' | 🟨 | Bassem Srarfi · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days |
| 310.00 |
| 706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1589.06 | 1601.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.89 | -4.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 44.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.40 | — |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |