← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 52% | 59% | 1.87 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
| Caen win | 21% | 18% | 4.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Younn Zahary · Caen |
| 19' | 🟨 | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jessy Deminguet · Caen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Jonathan Gradit · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| 1252.00 |
| 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1580.93 | 1420.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.27 | 1.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 37.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |