← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 42% | 31% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 38% | 3.21 | value: +21% |
| Amiens win | 28% | 31% | 3.51 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Neven Subotić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 16' | ⚽ | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 23' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 32' | 🟥 | Jordan Lefort · Amiens |
| 57' | 🟨 | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 61' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Prince Gouano · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Regis Gurtner · Amiens |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 26 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1587.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1570.16 | 1699.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.63 | 2.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.50 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 28.17 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |